Investments can take many forms–most commonly gold or stocks. The question is whether the unusual investment in LEGO sets is worth more than gold?
Certain LEGO sets have appreciated in value faster than gold and other comparable investments. Due to this appreciation rate, a LEGO set will be worth more than an equivalent investment in gold after enough years.
I will go over all of the reasons below if you’re wondering why LEGO can be worth more than gold. You will find out what makes a LEGO set valuable, if they ever lose value, as well as whether you should invest in LEGO or not.
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Are LEGO Sets Worth More Than Gold?
In January 2022, the Research in International Business and Finance journal published a study that examined the investment possibilities of LEGO sets. The researchers, Victoria Dobrynskaya and Julia Kishilova, found that in the years between 1987 and 2015 the average return on LEGO sets was 11%.
In comparison, the average return for gold over that same time period was 2.85% according to data from macrotrends.net. These two investments are different enough to make comparisons complicated, but in general LEGO sets are worth more than gold. With that said, both investments involve some level of variability.
| INVESTMENT | AVERAGE RETURN BETWEEN 1987 AND 2015 |
|---|---|
| LEGO | 11% |
| GOLD | 2.85% |
There are exceptions to that claim of course. Only certain LEGO sets are worth an investment. There are some conditions that a set must meet for its value to appreciate. Additionally, the earlier mentioned study from the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow, noted that LEGO sets are not subject to several market risk factors. Gold on the other hand is.
What Makes LEGO Sets Valuable?
You need to know what qualities to look for if you are looking for a LEGO set to invest in. LEGO set investing is different from gold in that not all sets are built equal. Some of the more important factors in the worth of a LEGO set are listed below.
- The set is discontinued.
- A small number of sets.
- The set is a special edition.
- The set is unopened.
- The size is either large or small.
- Seasonal, Architectural, or movie theme.
The scarcity of certain sets is one of the most important factors in the worth. This scarcity can either be due to a limited production run or a reduced number of surviving sets. Special edition sets are very valuable for this reason. Since this is an important factor, if a set returns to production, the price will likely drop significantly.
Another important factor is the state of the set. While a set is in production, the price is not much more than commercial. Dobrynskaya and Kishilova noted in their study that appreciation did not occur until 2 to 3 years after the set became discontinued. Whether the set is opened or sealed will also greatly affect the price.
The theme and size of the set also determine worth. The study found that sets on either side of the size range did the best. The three themes listed above also tended to be the most expensive. Some of this may be due to the nostalgia that fans of LEGO sets experience.
Which LEGO Sets WIll Be Worth Money?
With these factors in mind, there is a specific type of set that will be worth the most. Ideally, the set will meet all of the above conditions. However, there are sets that are fairly reliably worth a decent penny.
The two top LEGO sets are the first edition Millenium Falcon and the first edition Taj Mahal. These sets are complex, in the three most popular themes, and discontinued. Other expensive sets include Lion Knights King’s Castle (6080), Ghostbusters ECTO-1 (10274), Imperial Star Destroyer (10030), and Monorail Airport Shuttle (6399)
Any new sets that meet most price factors will be worth money several years after they have been discontinued. As with all investing, there is a degree of risk involved. It can sometimes be difficult to predict which sets will be valuable in a few years. This is especially true when one of the driving factors is the nostalgia of LEGO fans.
The below list of sets are sets that may be good investments. In general, the Ghostbusters, Ninjago and Harry Potter themes do well. Also, modular buildings generally increase in value significantly after retirement.
- LEGO Ghostbusters ECTO-1 (10274)
- LEGO Icons Bookshop (10270)
- LEGO Legacy Ninjago City Gardens (71741)
- LEGO Ideas Treehouse (21318)
- LEGO Avengers Tower Battle (76166)
- LEGO Architecture Skylines New York (21028)
- LEGO The Disney Castle (71040)
- LEGO Harry Potter Prisoner of Azkaban Hogwarts Express (75955)
- LEGO Chess (40174)
- LEGO Harry Potter Goblet of Fire Hogwarts Clock Tower (75948).
A good tool to indicate whether prices may increase after retirement is CamelCamelCamel. If you visit this website and put the LEGO set in the find Amazon products search bar at the top of the page, the set should come up. Click on the set and you will see pricing information for this set.
Look at the highest price in the Amazon price history and the 3rd party new price. If this number is a lot higher than the retail price, this means that the price went up during a period when the set was out of stock. This is a good indication that the price will rise this high again or higher when the set has retired and is in limited quantities.
This does not mean that you have to sell your LEGO sets on Amazon, The increase in price on Amazon means that prices will increase across all of the secondary marketplaces as scarcity drives up the price.
Does LEGO Ever Lose Value?
So far there have been mostly positives when investing in LEGO sets. At this point, you may be wondering if they hold their value. The answer to this depends greatly on the condition of the set.
A LEGO set may lose value if it is open, missing pieces, or damaged in some way. One exception includes a fully built set. Certain sets will retain their value even when opened if they have been built and displayed.
Whether LEGO loses its value also depends on the theme as some themes are always more valuable than others. For example, according to Brick Economy, LEGO themes such as LEGO Friends, LEGO Technic, and even LEGO Disney have an annual growth rate of around 5%. Compare this to themes such as LEGO Originals, LEGO Super Mario, and LEGO Vidiyo which enjoy an annual growth rate in the low 20% range, and LEGO Forma reaching over 30%!
Despite its tremendous success and popularity, there is no guarantee that LEGO will always maintain its value. Like all investments, it is subject to market fluctuations and economic downturns that could negatively affect demand for the toy. Additionally, new competitors or technological innovations may also present challenges for LEGO in the future.
That said, LEGO does seem well-positioned to weather any potential storms on the horizon. The company has a long history of innovation and adaptability, which have helped it stay ahead of emerging trends and changing consumer preferences. And thanks to its unique business model – which enables them to maintain strong profit margins even during tough times – LEGO should be able to keep up with shifting tides in order to retain its value over time.
Is Buying LEGO A Good Investment?
After learning that LEGO sets can be invested in, it raises the question of whether you should. In the end, it depends on what you want to do with your investment portfolio. There are many other options that you can invest in without missing any opportunities present in LEGO investing.
If you do choose to invest in LEGO sets or pieces you need to be able to store them until they appreciate. They must be kept in good condition as well. You will also have to realize that LEGO sets take up a lot of space, so you will have to have access to adequate space for storage. Not to mention that you would need to invest in several sets to truly make a worthwhile impact on your portfolio.
That said, LEGO sets are not a bad diversifying investment. They hold their value well in spite of any market changes.
LEGO is likely to remain a valuable investment for years to come. And with its combination of stability and growth potential, there are many good reasons to consider adding LEGO bricks to your portfolio.
Final Thoughts
If you’ve been a part of the LEGO investing world, this article wouldn’t have come as a surprise. The secondary market for LEGO has expanded greatly in recent years. Due to this growth, LEGO can be worth more than gold.
The sets that meet all of the above conditions tend to hold their value well and provide a decent return on investment. Keep in mind that there is always some risk involved, but if you are able to store your sets until they appreciate, you can make a tidy profit down the line.